The prevailing atmosphere inside parliamentary Labour members nowadays echoes Edgar's law. It declares that the scale of any misfortune is only measured in comparison to unforeseen calamities. As the Bard has the outcast offspring of the sightless nobleman of Gloucester say in King Lear: “The most terrible is absent, as long as we can say ‘this is the worst’.”
A Series of Deepening Crises
As per Edgar's law, you won't find any public opinion measure so pessimistic regarding the party that cannot be coming after another more depressing; no fiscal forecast so bad that the exchequer won't exacerbate through contradictory signals about levies; no reservations about Keir Starmer that won't be heightened via hostile communications about a leadership challenge.
Immigration Rules Declaration
Against this backdrop, this week's declaration of measures that aim to limit the number of displaced persons granted entry to Britain, patterned after a famously strict Danish system, was received better among party members than anticipated. There appeared glimmers of backbench anger however no blaze of rebellion.
Tightening asylum rules is far from the party's natural territory, yet the existing framework is clearly failing and voters are angry. Most MPs grasp the reasoning that tolerance and social unity are easier to cultivate if assurance exists that the nation's borders are safely guarded.
Growing Discontent
Quiet backbenches can also be ominous. MPs have learned that each issue is discussable alongside a purposeless head of adaptable beliefs. Today's declarations may be unannounced tomorrow. There exists no necessity to rush over the top if successes can be achieved via endurance.
A regular criticism involves the leader is scarcely operating the cabinet in any meaningful way, having delegated political judgment to his principal advisor. That isn't to say the head of government misses managerial vigor, he merely chooses not to mediate between ministry conflicts or undertake long debates.
Management Method
The leader joined organized political activity late in his career, first entering parliament during his early fifties. He lacks instinct for Labour lore – the body of historical arguments, drives, personalities and traditional touchstones that connect a leader to the wider movement and its perception of common objective.
His deepest convictions stay concealed to government members. As one senior party member states: “Keir is highly unusual as a prime minister by creating the perception that his private opinions remain personal matters.”
Political Consequences
The persona marketed representing the leader during the previous electoral contest has similarly not produced its purported benefits: executive proficiency culminating in countrywide revitalization. Assuming Britain possessed a dual-party structure, the memory of past problems under the Tories might prolong patience with Labour.
That presages a crushing loss among government contenders in council and national assembly contests in the coming spring. It shall represent a moment of extreme peril for Starmer, provided he remains until then.
Future Considerations
Not present within these calculations appears unity on the identity of a replacement and their intended agenda may differ compared to present strategies. This weakness within succession arrangements is cited by those backing the incumbent as part of various arguments to continue supporting the current leader.
While restive MPs might recoil from these alerts, they similarly perceive within them the familiar, meaningless sound of low ambition that induces despair regarding present circumstances. It represents the noise of inability to describe the approach as simply a sequence of tactics for holding power.
Concluding Thoughts
It proves difficult to summon loyalty toward such a purpose. Numerous parliamentarians have endeavored. They have stuck with established policies, justified it to constituents, heeded instructions, trusted promises that their concerns were heard.
Regicide contains considerable peril, however, does it present greater hazards than pretending that the current ruler has answers about important matters which he doesn't identify? Edgar's law recommends carefulness regarding the replacement of a current head of government. The replacement might prove more disastrous.
“The weight of these difficult days we have to accept; Speak what we feel, rather than expected statements.”
